US Stock Market Analysis Report - 2025-09-04

Article Summary

This report analyzes the overall performance of the US stock market on September 4, 2025, focusing on tech stock dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and changes in market sentiment. Although data on the top 10 most traded stocks of the day could not be obtained, the analysis of overall market trends and major individual stock performances provides investors with a comprehensive assessment of the current market environment.

Market Overview

On September 4th, the three major US stock indices showed divergent trends:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.05%, closing at 45,271.23 points
• S&P 500 Index: Up 0.51%, closing at 6,448.26 points
• NASDAQ Composite Index: Up 1.02%, closing at 21,497.73 points

The technology sector performed particularly well, with the Wind US Tech Giants Index (MAGS) rising 1.17%. Among them, Alphabet's Class A shares rose 9.14% and Class C shares rose 9.01%, both hitting record highs; Apple rose 3.81%, closing at its highest level since March this year.

Key Changes

Market Sentiment

• Investor Confidence: Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut this month and expecting two to three rate cuts within the year
• Capital Flows: Tech stocks attracted significant capital inflows, particularly leading companies like Google and Apple
• Market Activity: Overall trading volume contracted somewhat, indicating investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data releases

Hot Sectors

• Tech Stocks: Driven by positive antitrust case developments, Google and Apple led the tech sector higher
• New Energy Sector: Showed strong performance as investors remained optimistic about the industry's long-term growth prospects

Macroeconomic Factors

Employment Data

US ADP Employment increased by 54,000 in August, below market expectations of 65,000 and significantly slower than the revised July figure (106,000). This data strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Trade Policy

US President Trump signed an executive order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. Under the agreement, the US will impose a 15% base tariff on nearly all Japanese imports entering the US, while Japan will provide market access for US producers in key areas.

Major Stock Movements

Alphabet (Google)

• Stock Performance: Class A shares rose 9.14%, Class C shares rose 9.01%, both hitting record highs
• Positive Factors: A US District Court judge ruled that Google does not need to divest its Chrome browser and Android operating system businesses, a major victory for Google in the antitrust litigation
• Market Impact: The ruling also benefited Apple, as Google can continue paying billions of dollars to device manufacturers like Apple to set its search engine as default

Apple

• Stock Performance: Rose 3.81%, closing at its highest level since March this year
• Product Developments: Reports indicate the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved hearing aid software for Apple AirPods Pro
• Market Expectations: Analysts predict Apple's first foldable iPhone could launch in Q4 2026 with a price tag above $2,000-$2,500

Investment Recommendations

Based on current market conditions, investors are advised to:

1. Focus on Tech Leaders: Major tech companies like Google and Apple have achieved victories in antitrust litigation and have strong fundamentals; consider accumulating on dips
2. Diversify Investments: Beyond tech stocks, appropriately allocate to growth sectors like new energy to reduce single-sector risk
3. Control Position Sizing: Maintain caution before nonfarm payroll data release and avoid excessive leverage
4. Long-term Perspective: For quality companies, use market volatility to gradually build positions for long-term holdings

Risk Warnings

⚠️ Important Reminder: Investment involves risks; enter the market with caution. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

1. Economic Data Risk: Upcoming nonfarm payroll data may trigger significant market volatility
2. Policy Uncertainty: Implementation of the US-Japan trade agreement may have uncertain impacts on related industries
3. Market Sentiment Changes: If rate cut expectations are not met, tech stocks may pull back
4. International Situation Risks: Global trade frictions and geopolitical tensions may affect market stability

Key Focus Areas

1. Release of US August nonfarm payroll data (expected September 5)
2. Outcome of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting
3. Specific impacts of the US-Japan trade agreement on related industries
4. Q3 earnings pre-announcements from tech stocks